Theoretical advances in the context of the solar cycle provide a window to the magnetic Universe on the one hand, and on the other, benefits the quest for predicting space weather and climate. Understanding magnetic field generation in the Sun and stars is an outstanding challenge in astrophysics. Our simulations demonstrate fluctuation in the tilt angle distribution of sunspots is the dominant mechanism responsible for solar cycle variability. Sunspot cycle 25 may thus reverse the substantial weakening trend in solar activity which has led to speculation of an imminent Maunder-like grand minimum and cooling global climate. Our ensemble forecast indicates cycle 25 would be similar or slightly stronger than the current cycle and peak around 2024. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun’s surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth’s atmosphere. The Sun’s activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather.
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